1. Write your math history related to probability and statistics.  (< 1 page) What is your previous experience with prob and stats?  What do you think of it?  What is your comfort level?  What learning/teaching styles have you used or seen for probability and stats (or math in general)?  Why did you choose this class?  What do you hope to get out of it?  What are you hoping to put into it?

2. Write up a solution to this alternate version of the Fra Luca Pacioli Problem.

   Alice and Bob are tossing pennies. Alice wins if heads come up, Bob wins if tails come up. A stake of $100 is put up, and agreement is made that the first person to win eight tosses wins the whole stake.

   Due to an outside interruption, the game has to be broken off after Alice has won 6 tosses and Bob has won 5 tosses.

   How should the stake be divided? (Base your solution on the probability of each person winning)

1. Write up theoretical models to predict the outcomes of each of the two games played in class. Create two models to explain the probabilites for Checker A Game, then show/explain how to alter those models for Checker B Game.
2. Come up with another way to alter the game. Explain the new rules and create a theoretical model that gives the probabilities for each end slot.
3. Read Navigations - Probability: Read p29-37, then read the three activities on pages: p43-44, p47-50. Decide which activity would be the best followup to the checkerboard games and write a half page argument as to how you made your choice. Justify your choice by the math concepts used for that activity.

1. Look over HW 2. Make sure you are happy with your models. If you didn't care for the area model, try counting paths or explaining how you'd use 100 chips, splitting them at each step. Include a few sentences explaining how you built your model, so that when you look back at your work in a year, you'll remember the reasoning process you used to build the models. Submit this with your other HW on Thursday.
2. If you were in class, your HW is to do the Jury problem on the last page of the worksheet. If you were not in class, please complete the entire worksheet.

1. Write up nice, clean solutions to #5 and #6 on Non Transitive Dice activity. Write your explanations in complete sentences and use pictures where appropriate.
2. Read p 11-16 in Navigations – Probability

   Explain 4 ideas/concepts/models you found interesting in this section. (Don’t just list them out, explain them as if to a middle school student) Pictures may help.

3. Read p 17-28 in Navigations – Probability

   Write a 1 paragraph summary of each activity, focusing on what key concepts are covered by that activity. (This does not have to be long, it just has get to the point of the activity.)

4. Start thinking about what you might like to teach next week. Bring ideas on Monday.

1. What’s the difference between sample space and sample? (Include examples)
2. Explain the Law of Large Numbers and the Law of Small Numbers and how they relate to each other.
3. What do you think the difference is between an inaccurate prediction and an “erroneous” prediction? (p55)
4. Briefly, what’s the point of the Two Hospitals Lesson? What are the big ideas you would want to stress if you used this in class?

Here's one potential source for data: lib.stat.cmu.edu/DASL/

For your project you will need to use raw data, not data that has already been turned into graphs. Part of the project is to demonstrate the ability to create graphical representations of data.

In a separate pile, turn in HW 8:

Write up a clean solution to the following “Faking the data” questions from class, making sure to explain clearly how to reason from one problem to the next. Think about how you’d help a student alter a data set to achieve the next objective.

• a) Build a data set with 10 elements and a median of 9.
• b) Build a data set with 10 elements and a median of 9 and a mean of 15.
• c) Build a data set with 10 elements and a median of 9 and a mean of 16.
• d) Build a data set with 11 elements and a median of 9 and a mean of 15.
• e) Build a data set with 10 elements and a median of 7 and a mean of 15.